Recruiting Roulette

I believe recruiting is the most important difficult task of most college football coaches. Especially ones in the Pacific Northwest so far from California, Texas and Florida. Identifying, evaluating and recruiting remotely is time consuming, risky and the lifeblood of the most successful schools. A college football program is like a company with a customer cycle that turns over 100% every 5 years. So the recruiting process has urgency and is year round. In my business, Radio, our clients usually turn over 20-30% a year and almost 100% every 4. So I know a little about identifying clients, prospecting and convincing them to come on board. Radio Customers who listen to the stations and live in the Treasure Valley are the best customers and make up probably 80% of a stations billing.
It is the exact opposite for Boise State football.
Each year, the Treasure Valley has no more than a handful of Top 25 FBS caliber recruits. And that is being very generous. Boise State gets their fair share but it isn't enough. Boise State may actually only play 8-10 Treasure Valley kids on the 2012 team any considerable time. So of the 75 kids who play each season , maybe 20% come from a 50 mile radius of Boise. The other 80% not. I know how much more difficult it would be for me to get 80% of my business from elsewhere. It complicates things and takes time, effort and money. And ,oh yea, LUCK. The competition for football recruits goes up for every mile you get away from Boise, Idaho.
I think the luck of recruiting may be in a down cycle for Boise State right now. Nevada's top players, QB Cody Fajardo and RB Stefphon Jefferson, were both passed on by Boise State for QB Grant Hedrick and RB Malcom Johnson. One not playing and the other flunked out, got hurt and then dismissed from the team.
I would say roughly 25% of recruits since 2008 have been a total bust and maybe another 25% have not met the coaches expectations yet. The pre-season ALL MWC team had 5 Broncos on it, only two on offense. This may not be the year for dominating wins and 50 point offensive outbursts.  Or great recruiting results.  Yet.